3 2.15kviews COVID-19 : Visual Data Science Part 2 - Update & Methodologies

We are now in the midst of many COVID-19 regional outbreaks. WW confirmed cases have topped half a million and growing rapidly. Italy now has more confirmed cases than China; and Italy, Spain, Germany, UK and US are on an approximate 3-5 day doubling rate of cases. There have been more than 20 thousand deaths. Italy and Spain now have more deaths than China; and Italy, Spain, UK and US are on an approximate 3-5 day doubling rate for deaths. 

Note that errors around any predictions of future cases are substantial - with exponential parameters comes exponential prediction errors! It is only by modeling, visualizing and predicting emerging infections, that everyone can understand the pandemic in their own region, assess the effects of preventive measures, and apply best protective practices in their local communities. And to understand our personal risk!

This paper provides an update on our analyses and some details on our modeling, simulation and analytics methodologies. This includes :-

  • COVID-19 Trajectories : interpretation and normalization; including auto-cluster of trajectories

  • Data Science Modeling : Rt progression 

  • Compartment Modeling: epidemiology and statistical parameters

  • Healthcare resource requirements modeling 

  • GeoSpatial Analysis: map layers, cartograms, chloropleths 

The analyses are presented using Spotfire visual analytics in a hosted environment. Figure 1 shows the Spotfire application Global Overview. 

Figure 1. Spotfire application Global Overview. Shows worldwide cases, fatalities, recoveries and country-level stats. Includes slider for stepping through time by date. 

The analyses refresh hourly, depending on availability of data sources. Spotfire apps and code will be made available for download. Links to various trusted data sources are provided. Collaboration is encouraged and Spotfire will be available for use by those who don’t have it.  TIBCO customers who are struggling with data and analytics issues around COVID-19 effects, can contact the authors for more information and assistance. 

Data: Johns Hopkins University | Spotfire application available here - this includes regular refresh of the data on Figure 1 above.

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